The property professionals’ solution

The election of Donald Trump to a second term as President of the United States raises many questions about the global economic repercussions. Among them, the impact on the Swiss real estate market should not be underestimated. Rising interest rates, a stronger Swiss franc, economic uncertainties... What are the possible scenarios for real estate in Switzerland?

Towards higher interest rates?

Trump's “America First” economic policy could lead to higher tariffs and intensify trade tensions with key partners. In response, financial markets could react by raising interest rates, impacting the cost of mortgages in Switzerland. Such a development would curb home ownership and could moderate growth in the real estate market.

Is Switzerland still a safe haven?

In times of uncertainty, investors prefer stable assets. Switzerland, traditionally perceived as a safe haven, could see an influx of foreign capital, particularly into commercial real estate, less constrained by the Lex Koller. However, too much demand could reinforce the overvaluation of the Swiss real estate market and accentuate the risk of a correction.

The Swiss franc under pressure

A Trump 2.0 mandate could lead to sharp currency fluctuations. If instability pushes investors towards the Swiss franc, its appreciation could harm exports and curb economic growth, with an indirect effect on real estate. Conversely, if Switzerland is perceived as vulnerable to US protectionist measures, the franc could stabilize, making Swiss goods more attractive to foreign investors.

The rise of indirect investments

In the face of heightened volatility, investors may favour indirect real estate investments, such as real estate funds and shares in listed real estate companies, which are less risky than buying physical property. This trend could reshape market dynamics and open up new opportunities for real estate professionals.

Conclusion

While Donald Trump's election brings its share of uncertainties, it could also create opportunities for Swiss real estate. Rising interest rates could slow the residential market, while commercial real estate and indirect investments could benefit. More than ever, industry players will need to keep a close eye on US policy developments and their economic repercussions.


Sources
rts.ch - Article
watson.ch - Article
immoday.ch - Article
propertyowner.ch - Article